It’s About the Size of Your Context

Good decisions are less about choosing from a menu and more about deciding what belongs on the table. Context is the set of facts, constraints, and perspectives you keep in mind while deciding. If it is too small, you move fast and miss what matters. If it is too large, you drown in trivia. The craft is to right‑size context: big enough to capture signal, small enough to be intelligible. This post offers a model for why that matters and practices for keeping your head when certainty swings.

Context sets the decision

Every decision is a compression of reality. You choose which variables to honor and which to set aside. Signal is what bears on the choice; noise is everything else. Decision quality tracks the quality of the context you assemble. A clear frame often outperforms clever analysis inside a poor frame.

Right‑sizing context starts with relevance. Ask what facts, constraints, and incentives could change the decision if they shifted. Bring those in. Resist everything that will not move the outcome. A context that is too narrow produces speed and error. A context that is too broad produces delay and doubt. The aim is a frame that captures what will matter to the result and leaves the rest at the door.

Certainty whiplash: lessons from detective fiction

Detective fiction is a study in recontextualization. A new clue arrives, and prior facts invert. The suspect who looked guilty now looks framed. That swing—certainty whiplash—mirrors real decisions. As information lands, the meaning of what you already knew can change.

Wisdom shows up as pensiveness. First weigh what you know, then what you do not. It is common to see high certainty among the least informed; the more capable tend to sit with doubt. The Dunning–Kruger effect is a partial explanation: confidence can peak when grasp is shallow, then recede as understanding expands, and rise again only when evidence coheres. Experience grows context and, with it, a steady hand while the picture shifts.

How context is bent: omission and overload

Context can be manipulated. You can persuade by omitting relevant pieces, which oversimplifies the frame and makes a path look inevitable. Or you can confuse by overloading the frame with marginalia, which buries the signal and stalls action. Both moves distort the signal‑to‑noise ratio.

Omission looks like a single metric that ignores cost, risk, or time. Overload looks like a deck with dozens of charts that never land a decision. In both cases, the decision maker is pushed off balance—either funnelled into a narrow conclusion or suspended in analysis without traction. Recognize these moves in yourself and others.

Right‑size the context

Enlarge context responsibly. Seek the few facts and perspectives that could plausibly change the outcome. Filter noise with equal care. If your context is sufficiently large, you can imagine the other side’s perspective—their incentives, constraints, and fears. That capacity is a superpower for good decisions and durable agreements.

Make context explicit and shared. Records, definitions, and conventions reduce room for selective memory and unhelpful certainty. Meeting notes that record what was on the table, term sheets that state assumptions, and decision logs that capture rationale all anchor context so it can be tested and improved. Clarity and integrity depend on this discipline.

At Amicus, we hold that counsel is most useful when the frame is plain and agreed. Clarity and integrity are not slogans; they are the result of explicit, shared context. When teams keep records and honor sensible conventions, they right‑size context, raise the signal, and reduce the kind of certainty that collapses under the next clue.

Bottom line: decide the context, then decide. Make it large enough to catch what matters, and small enough to hear the signal.